Severe Winter Storm in Store for the Southeast: AI Models Discussion 1-20-2026

While most of our blogs have focused on tropical weather (my area of expertise), it is worthwhile to examine how AI models handle other potentially high-impact weather events. One such event is forecast to occur this weekend as a winter storm grips the southern U.S.

The synoptic ingredients will be in place for significant precipitation. A trough over the western U.S. and jet streak extending to the NE will create a favored area for large-scale lift all across the South and Southeast (Figure 1).

This will lead to a wide area of large-scale precipitation all across the region, potentially heavy in spots across parts of states from Oklahoma to the Carolinas and points beyond (Figure 2).

At the surface, a potent Arctic high will be moving in from the Northern US (Figure 3). As a result, sub-freezing surface temperatures will spread across the region, with cold air damming across the Carolinas into North Georgia (Figure 4).

All wintry precipitation types will be a threat from this storm, with various locations seeing heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, depending on the depth of the cold air ahead of the warm front and associated overrunning precipitation. A lot of the uncertainty depends on the precise track of the storm and the associated “warm nose” at 850-hPa, which will determine which locations see snow vs. sleet vs. ice. For example, GraphCast has the 850-hPa warmth confined near the coast, which would allow for more snow across North Carolina (Figure 5).

Other models have a stronger ridge and larger warm sector across the Southeast. For example, PanguWeather has a warm nose extending to the Appalachians, which would reduce snow totals but increase the risk of ice across the Carolinas and Virginia (Figure 6).

A lot of the uncertainty is tied to the details of the upstream troughing and how that evolves as it moves east. The locations that see the most snow and ice may not be clear for a few more days, but the bottom line is that a widespread winter storm will occur across much of the Southern US this weekend, potentially causing power outages and travel headaches, including for those of us going to the 2026 AMS Annual Meeting in Houston. Keep an eye on the forecast, and stay safe as always!