Possible Hybrid off the East Coast, Champi Threatens Guam: AI Models Discussion 10-16-2026

Atlantic

The Atlantic remains generally quiet as this strong El Niño season heads towards the finish line. The one possible candidate for development is from a coastal low forecast to form off the East Coast over the next several days. Quite a few ensemble members have a trackable low from this feature, with many close to the coast (Figure 1).

The structure of the system is a question mark. It will start off as non-tropical, with fronts still apparent (Figure 2). If it is able to sit over warm water for several days and generate core convection, I could see a subtropical storm forming.

Regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, strong NE flow will likely cause coastal flooding and nasty weather along parts of the Eastern seaboard next week (Figure 3), especially if the storm stalls and stays close to the coast.

East Pacific

The East Pacific remains fairly busy, with Simon weakening west of Mexico and Trudy now a Category 3 to the south of Mexico. Trudy is moving northwest, and will likely get very close to the coast, though many ensemble members keep it just offshore (Figure 4).

In addition to upwelling due to prior TCs (Polo, Rachel, and Simon), it looks like southwesterly wind shear could be an impediment to Trudy as it gets further northwest (Figure 5). Mexico should still keep an eye on it though because it could get close enough for some significant impacts.

As Figure 4 shows, there is some indication that yet another system could form south of Mexico in the next week or so, but the model signal is pretty on-and-off for now.

West Pacific

The main system of note in the West Pacific right now is Champi, which looks poised to rapidly intensify as it moves near the Mariana Islands and to the west (Figure 6).

Champi will likely be a very close call for Guam. Right now, most Google DeepMind members are taking it just south of the island (Figure 7), but some do show a direct landfall, and a track just south of the island could still put it in the dangerous northern eyewall.

As the TC moves past Guam, the environment looks very favorable for continued intensification, with a large upper-level anticyclone overhead and healthy outflow (Figure 8).

There’s still some uncertainty in the long-range track forecasts. Models have shifted towards a more southerly track that potentially threatens Taiwan or Japan. The track will be determined by the strength and position of a ridge north of the TC, and how long the western edge of that ridge holds (Figure 9).

We’ll see how these systems evolve and be back with another update soon!