Bertha Moving Across the Gulf, Fausto a Possible Hawaii Threat: AI Models Discussion 7-22-2026
It’s a fairly busy week across the global tropics, so we’ll take a closer look at several systems of note, starting with the Atlantic.
Atlantic
The only system of note in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Bertha, located near the SE tip of Louisiana. It is forecast to continue west along the Northern Gulf Coast near the next few days (Figure 1).
The storm is highly asymmetric, with most of the convection well south of the center due to upper level wind shear from the NE. This is forecast to continue for the next few days as a ridge builds in north of the system (Figure 2). Thus, I would not expect significant strengthening even if the storm is able to stay out over the warm Gulf waters. It could still bring some heavy rain to parts of Texas, however.
East Pacific
The main system to watch in the East Pacific right now is Hurricane Fausto, which is moving off to the West-Northwest. The storm is forecast to continue West-Northwest in the general direction of Hawaii over the next week, and some models are suggesting it could be a threat to impact the islands directly (Figure 3).
The environment looks generally favorable for Fausto to intensify some as it continues west, though it may have to contend with some dry air wrapping in from the north and west (Figure 4).
Due to this dry air, and also the usual north-south gradient in SST in the East-Central Pacific, there is a clear north-south spread in the ensemble intensities, with tracks that take Fausto further north weakening more, while the tracks along the southern edge of the ensemble look stronger (Figure 5). Typically, storms that approach Hawaii from the East weaken significantly as they do so, due to the cooler water and dry air mentioned above. However, waters are warmer than usual this year, so we’ll see if Fausto is able to stay stronger for longer. Folks in Hawaii, especially the Big Island, should keep a close eye on this storm.
Behind Fausto, another TC looks likely to develop in the East Pacific, and could intensify quite a bit as it heads off to the northwest (Figure 3).
West Pacific
The West Pacific looks to remain active, with a large westerly wind burst over much of the region (Figure 6) helping to create a lot of low-level vorticity and creating favorable low-level conditions for TC genesis.
One system of note is Invest 92W, currently located East of the Philippines. Models suggest that it will likely undergo TC genesis in the next 24 hours, and has the potential to intensify quickly over the next few days prior to making landfall in Southern China (Figure 7).
Behind this system, models show at least a couple of other candidates for development, although the exact location of disturbances is still an open question (Figure 8). The best chance for a strong system seems to be from a disturbance that emerges from near the dateline. This eastward shift of TC genesis and peak intensity in the West Pacific is a hallmark of strong El Niño events.
We’ll be back soon with more updates, especially for the Pacific storms!