Invest 93C Worth Watching in Hawaii, Atlantic Showing Some Slight Signs of Life: AI Models Discussion 8-10-2026

We will take a tour around the Northern Hemisphere tropics this afternoon and discuss some of the key systems of interest.

West Pacific

The West Pacific remains the most busy basin overall, with 13W (Peilou), 14W (Chan-Hom), 15W, and Invest 90W all active over the waters of the region. However, none of these systems are expected to become very strong, and the overall flow is dominated by the broader scale monsoon circulation (Figure 1).

In the medium range, some models are suggesting that we could see another stronger system develop in the Eastern part of the basin, but the location is somewhat uncertain at this point (Figure 2).

East/Central Pacific

The main system to note in the East Pacific (or more technically, the Central Pacific) is Invest 93C. This is a very broad system to the southeast of Hawaii. The broad nature of the system and elongated vorticity (Figure 3) makes the forecast somewhat challenging, as the system could consolidate anywhere within that larger envelope.

As the system approaches Hawaii, it is likely to turn towards the west, under the influence of a large upper-level ridge to the north (Figure 4). However, there is still some uncertainty in the exact track and how close it will get to the islands, in part due to the broad nature of the system and competing vorticity centers.

Right now, most of the Google DeepMind suite shows the system passing just south of Hawaii (Figure 5). However, some members do show a landfall, and others bring it close enough for impacts. Folks in the islands should keep a close eye on this one and monitor official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, which right now has a 90% chance of TC development within 7 days.

Atlantic

The Atlantic is showing a few signs of life. The main system of interest is a tropical wave located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This system has a chance of some development as it moves off to the west-northwest across the Central Atlantic (Figure 6).

By this weekend, the system will likely be near or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles (Figure 7).

The system is likely to struggle to intensify in the medium range, due to the presence of a strong TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) near and to the north of the islands, inducing strong westerly wind shear (Figure 8). This is a classic hallmark of El Niño seasons. However, it’s still worth keeping an eye on this system in the Antilles. While some rain would be beneficial due to ongoing drought in the region, even weaker systems can sometimes cause flooding issues, such as Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 (also a strong El Niño).

We’ll keep tabs on these systems and be back with an update later this week!