92W Something to Watch, Slight Signals Elsewhere: AI Models Discussion 6-12-2026
We’ll take a look around the Northern Hemisphere tropics today, starting with the West Pacific, which has the most prominent potential for activity.
West Pacific
The main system of interest is Invest 92W, which is located just north of the Equator near 175W, a sign of the developing El Niño event, which was just declared officially by NOAA this week. The system is being spun up by a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) which is helping to generate cyclonic vorticity (Figure 1).
The system is forecast to develop into a TC, and a lot of models show it developing into a powerful typhoon (Figure 2).
There is a fairly large spread in the tracks. Most members show the system turning north ahead of a trough. As it does so, the interaction with the trough could help to enhance the intensification process (Figure 3).
However, as can be seen in Figure 2, some of the ensembles keep the system traveling west long enough to threaten the Philippines, and even a recurve track could threaten Japan. A lot will depend on formation location and the timing of troughs, which is still tough to predict at this range. It is also worth noting that some models are still less bullish on development (Figure 4), though the weak scenario seems less likely at this point.
East Pacific
With Tropical Storms Boris and Cristina dissipating, the East Pacific is quiet for the time being. There’s a slight signal in some ensemble members for some development in the next 10-15 days (Figure 5), but the basin might not really awaken again until the MJO moves back into a more favorable phase.
Atlantic
Figure 5 also shows the only potential system in the Atlantic, a wave currently moving through the Bay of Campeche. A few models show some slight spinup of this system if it can stay offshore of Texas, and then move east along the Gulf Coast. However, the system is currently dealing with some northerly shear (Figure 6) that is also bringing in dry air, which will slow development. NHC is currently giving the system a 20% chance of development.
We’ll see how these systems evolve in the coming days, and be back with updates next week!