05S Threatens Australia: AI Models Discussion 11-18-2025
As mentioned last week, the Southern Hemisphere season is starting to heat up a little bit, with a new TD 05S just off the coast of Australia. Models show some chance for intensification as it moves east then bends back south and west towards Australia. DeepMind/FNV3 shows a few stronger members with those that manage to stay over water longer, and move down towards Darwin (Figure 1). Most members make landfall earlier in a less populated area to the east.
Other AI models show a track towards the left side of the FNV3 envelope for the most part. For example, FourCastNet-v3 shows a robust system crossing Melville Island and then moving ashore near Darwin (Figure 2).
In general, the environment looks fairly favorable for 05S to intensify, with some northerly shear but overall relatively favorable upper winds (Figure 3). SSTs are very warm in the area, so the system should have plenty of fuel as long as it stays over water.
The environment is generally moist, though, not surprisingly, there is a chance some dry air of the Australian continent could wrap into the circulation as it gets closer to the coast (Figure 4).
Looking into the medium range, some models are still suggesting the possibility of development in the West Pacific and/or Indian Ocean as an MJO pulse moves through the region, so this will be something to keep an eye on as we head towards the end of November.
